Tropical depression likely by end of week

WSAV Hurricane Central

SAVANNAH, Ga. (WSAV) – The tropics during the first month of Hurricane Season have been quiet, but a weak area of low pressure over the southeastern United States may change that by the end of the week.

Currently sitting over central Georgia, a low is expected to travel south to the northern Gulf of Mexico and stall. Once it gets into the Gulf, we will have to watch it.

It will be over warm waters and low wind shear, which is favorable for development.

LATEST UPDATE: The National Hurricane Center has an 80% chance of formation in the next 5 days and a 30% chance of formation in the next 2 days. It is very likely a tropical depression will form by the end of this week.

We will still have to watch the forecast closely because a lot can change over the next few days. There is still uncertainty regarding the intensity, track, and impacts. Weather models are in agreement that the system will move to the west towards Louisiana and Texas, farther away from us.

A ridge of high pressure over the western United States will be the driving factor and pull the system to the west. It does not look to be a threat for us or the east coast.

If it forms into a tropical storm, it will be named Barry. We had our A-name storm “Andrea” back in May.

NOT THE USUAL TRACK: While this potential tropical systems track may seem a bit weird or different, it’s not unheard of! We usually track a tropical wave off the coast of Africa and through the Atlantic Ocean. However, there have been low pressures before that start on land, then move into the Gulf Of Mexico and become tropical systems. Here are two examples:

Hurricane Alicia: It started as part of a cold front that extended from the Northeast to the Gulf Coast. The storm became a hurricane on August 16. Alicia made landfall as a category 3 hurricane near Galveston and Houston, Texas.

Hurricane Danny: Danny started as a cluster of severe thunderstorms that moved through the Lower Mississippi Valley. It drifted into the Gulf of Mexico and was slow to develop. On July 17, Danny became a category 1 hurricane. The storm made landfall near Empire and Buras, Louisiana on the 18th and then made a second landfall near Mobile, Alabama on July 19.

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