SAVANNAH, Ga. (WSAV) — The National Hurricane Center has been monitoring a strong tropical wave for potential development in the eastern Atlantic.

Conditions right now do not support immediate development of this tropical wave into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next two days. The overall odds of development within 48 hours is about 20%.

The chances of development increase next week to 60%.

Over the next five days or so, environmental conditions — including warm water temperatures and weak wind shear — favor this system becoming a tropical storm.

Movement of this tropical wave (Invest 94L) is to the west at about 15 mph.

Development climatology

The current location for this tropical wave is not in an area we typically look to for potential development in late June or July.

Typically this early in the season, the equatorial Atlantic waters are a little too cool to support tropical storm and hurricane development. The extremely deep water usually takes until August or September to be warm enough to fuel tropical systems (85°F and warmer is what we usually need).

Early in the Atlantic hurricane season, we look to the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea for potential tropical system to develop because the water temperatures warm much faster than the open water of the Atlantic Ocean. This is due to the Gulf and Caribbean being relatively shallow and being smaller bodies of water.

By July, the western Atlantic begins to warm a little more and can support the development of tropical systems. Through the season, the main development regions grow farther east to include areas just west of Africa as water temperatures rise.

Late in the season (October and November), ocean water temperatures begin to cool as we get closer to winter and the focus returns to the Gulf and Caribbean Sea.

This year, Atlantic water temperatures are running above normal for this point in the hurricane season.