SAVANNAH, Ga. (WSAV) — The potential tropical cyclone nine is racing across the Atlantic waters. It is likely to become Tropical Storm Isaias by tomorrow/Wednesday. There is a lot of uncertainty with this system – both in the track and intensity long term.
A potential tropical cyclone (PTC) is a disturbance that has a high chance of forming into a tropical cyclone. As the PTC poses a threat of tropical storm conditions on land within 48 hours, it allows the National Hurricane Center to issue advisories before it is upgraded to a storm.
As of 11 pm Tuesday, PTC Nine is 235 miles southeast of the Leeward Islands. It has max sustained winds of 40 mph and is moving to the west-northwest at 25 mph.
The potential tropical cyclone is expected to become Isaias by tomorrow morning as it tracks closer to the Leeward Islands. It is expected to continue to strengthen as it tracks over Puerto Rico. The track and strength of the soon to be storm becomes less certain as we head through the weekend and into next week.
A lot of Uncertainty
There is a lot of uncertainty with the forecast track both in the track and intensity long term since there is no well-defined center of circulation. Strength of this system depends on where it tracks. A southern track would move it over the mountainous terrain of Hispanola. This would lead to a weaker system. If it tracks to the north, it would stay over warm waters and could have more time to develop.
While it is too soon to know if PTC Nine will impact the Coastal Empire and Lowcountry, it is a system that Storm Team 3 is closely monitoring.
The big take away is that the tropical storm hasn’t formed just yet. It is hard for forecast models to get a good grasp on an undeveloped storm and where it could track. As this system continues to strengthen and move more west, we will have a better idea on those factors.
When Isaias forms, it will break the record for the earliest I named storm. This record is currently held by 2005’s Irene, which formed on August 7, 2005. When Isaias forms, it will become the 6th storm this year to set the record for being the earliest named storm.
If PTC Nine gets named, it would be the fifth named storm to form this July. The most Atlantic named storms to form in July on record (since 1851) is five in 2005.
|Cristobal||June 2||Colin||June 5, 2016|
|Edouard||July 6||Emily||July 11, 2005|
|Fay||July 9||Franklin||July 21, 2005|
|Gonzalo||July 22||Gert||July 24, 2005|
|Hanna||July 24||Harvey||August 3, 2005|
|Isaias||??||Irene||August 7, 2005|