SAVANNAH, Ga. (WSAV) – As of 11 p.m. Wednesday, Dorian was 90 miles north of San Juan, moving northwest at 13 mph with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph.
Dorian is moving into the southwest Atlantic Ocean after moving over the British Virgin Islands. A weather station on Buck Island just south of St. Thomas has reported hurricane-force winds of 82 mph and a gust of 111 mph.
As it continues to move in the Atlantic, it will move into a favorable environment where it will continue to strengthen, and it will likely become a powerful hurricane.
Dorian is getting better organized with rain bands developing around the system.
As for the track… Dorian’s center reformed north yesterday afternoon after crossing the Lesser Antilles, which pulled the storm more east and north. This caused Dorian to track through the U.S. and British Virgin Islands instead of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. It wasn’t able to interact with the mountainous terrain or the pocket of very dry air in that region.
As it continues to move in the Atlantic, passing north of the Turks and Caicos on Friday, it will have more moisture to work with and less wind shear and dry air inhibiting its development. It will then intensify much more quickly, but remain a fairly compact storm in physical size.
Southern portions of the Coastal Empire are still in the far northern portion of the 5-day cone. The 5-day cone extends down to the Florida Keys. Direct landfall locations are virtually impossible to pin down outside of 5 days.
A Florida landfall still appears to be more likely than one closer to the Coastal Empire or Lowcountry, but regardless of the exact landfall location,
it is a good idea to have hurricane supplies and plans in place by June 1 every year and not to wait for a storm to threaten our area.
While making preparations would not be a bad idea, it is far too early to panic with many critical details still uncertain.
Make sure you are keeping up to date with the latest forecasts as details become more clear regarding a possible landfall along the Southeast early next week.