Tracking the Tropics: Atlantic disturbance may become season’s next named storm


SAVANNAH, Ga. (WSAV) — Over the past several days, the National Hurricane Center has been watching a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa. This system is moving westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean towards the Lesser Antillies.

During this week, this tropical wave will be entering an environment that will be conducive for it to become more organized as a tropical depression or tropical storm. The waters are very warm, greater than 85°F.

Right now, this system that is being called invest 92L is a broad low pressure area that is producing some shower and storm activity. As of 2 pm Monday, there is a good chance that in the next day or two, 92L will become either a tropical depression or tropical storm (70% chance now). Over the next five days, as it heads over warmer water, the chances will be even greater (80% next five days).

There are indications in the steering currents as this becomes more organized as a tropical system and straightens a little more for it to take a northern route brushing the Greater Antilles.

Beyond the five day projections, there is a lot of uncertainty over the strength and path of this system. As this system continues to move more west, we will have a better idea on those factors.

There is no threat to the United States at this time. WSAV Storm Team 3 will continue to monitor this system as it potently become the next named system in the Atlantic.

If Isaias forms, it will break the record for the earliest I named storm. This record is currently held by 2005’s Irene, which formed on August 7, 2005. When Isaias forms, it will become the 6th storm this year to set the record for being the earliest named storm.

CristobalJune 2ColinJune 5, 2016
EdouardJuly 6EmilyJuly 11, 2005
FayJuly 9FranklinJuly 21, 2005
GonzaloJuly 22GertJuly 24, 2005
HannaJuly 24HarveyAugust 3, 2005
Isaias??IreneAugust 7, 2005

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