Update: March 2nd.

Savannah, Ga (WSAV) – There is a folklore that states the weather that occurs on the first 12 days of January represents the weather you can expect for their respective month. Each month I’ll be noting how many days we’ve had above/below/at average and looking at the amount of rain we received as well.

January 2nd was a chaotic day – we were under a tornado watch, tracked severe thunderstorms, and broke a record high. The forecasted weather for the month of February was rain, severe weather, and warm temperatures. Luckily for us, we missed out on severe weather. In fact, we only saw rain for 3 days out of the month with the closest thing to severe weather being gusty wind and isolated thunderstorms on February 18. Overall, we ended out the month well below the average monthly rainfall with only 0.87″ compared to 2.70″.

As for temperatures, we did enjoy lots of warm weather with a total of 12 days above average, ending out the month with the average temperature 2.9 degrees above average. We brushed record highs at the end of February. While we had multiple days where we didn’t get out of the 40s or 50s, warm temperatures won this month.

According to the weather on January 3rd, March will be a chilly, sunny, and windy month. So hold on to your hats and check back here in April.

Folklore Background

This folklore dates back to farmers using this to predict how to prepare their crops for the rest of the year. It is still used today, especially with farmers in Mexico. This specific forecast extends throughout the entire month. Not only do they look at the first 12 days, but every day through the rest of the month. It gets a little complicated so stick with me.

January 1-12 follow the months in chronological order: January, February, March….November, December.
January 13-24 follows the months in descending order: December, November, October,…February, January.

January 25-30 divides each day into 2 halves: the first from midnight – noon, the second from noon to midnight. The first half follows the odd numbered months: January, March, May, July, September, November. The second half follows the even numbered months: February, April, June, August, October, December.

And the last day in January (January 31st) is saved for a special forecast. The day is divided into 24 hours. The first 12 hours represent the months in chronological order and the last 12 hours represent each month in descending order.

First 12 Days of January

For all purposes of this study, I am going to follow the January 1-12 rules where the weather occurring on that date represents the overall weather for that respective month.

We’ve had a little bit of everything over the first 12 days of January – going from record warmth, severe weather to cold, chilly sunshine. I guess this means we should hang on tight for the rest of the year.

January 1stWarm & SunnyJanuary
January 2ndRain, T-storms, Severe WeatherFebruary
January 3rdGusty Wind & SunnyMarch
January 4thBreezy, Chilly & SunnyApril
January 5thCool & Partly CloudyMay
January 6thWarm & Mostly SunnyJune
January 7thBreezy, Chilly, & SunnyJuly
January 8thChilly & Partly CloudyAugust
January 9thLate Day StormsSeptember
January 10thClouds to Sun, Tumbling TempsOctober
January 11thCool & SunnyNovember
January 12thChilly & Partly CloudyDecember

It will be interesting how each month turns out overall. On a personal note, fingers crossed that April remains as nice as the weather we had on January 4th because I’m getting married that month.

2 Months Down, 10 more to go

Going back to January, the forecast for the month was warm and sunny. We had 15 days of gorgeous sunshine but we missed out on the warm temperatures. Overall the month was -1.2 degrees below average with 23 days with temperatures below or at average. So far the folklore is only 50% true – got the sunshine in January, warm weather in February.