ATLANTA (WSAV) — New poll numbers by Emerson College show that the gubernatorial race has Governor Kemp with a 4-point lead over Stacey Abrams—48 to 44 percent.

In the Senate race, Republican candidate Herschel Walker holds a 2-point lead over incumbent Raphael Warnock—46 to 44 percent.

Walker holds a sizable 58 to 24 percent lead in rural Georgia while Warnock has a 66 to 25 percent lead among urban voters.

“Obviously with the Senate split 50/50,  it can swing the entire country. It is a statistical dead heat with Walker up 2 points, but it falls within the margin of error so we see it as a very competitive race in Georgia for the Senate,” says Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson College Polling. 

Political activists believe the senate race will likely head to a run-off but believe the secretary of state and gubernatorial races will be decided by November 8—midterm election day.

“Turnout is always critical but with a midterm, it will be lower than in a presidential election cycle but both Republicans and Democrats have reasons to be energized to push out in front of their voters,” says voting rights activist and political analyst Bill Crane. 

“You have got a really close race in the Senate. There is a real chance that there will be a runoff in which case we will be campaigning even longer,” says Kimball. 

Election leaders say candidates can only request a recount if it falls within a 0.5 percent margin and have two days after initial certification to request a recount.