SAVANNAH, Ga. (WSAV) — A new Emerson College/The Hill/WSAV poll shows that incumbent Republican Gov. Brian Kemp leads Democrat Stacey Abrams in the race for governor, while the race for senate between incumbent Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker is very tight.

With less than five days until the midterm elections on Tuesday, more than two million Georgians have already cast their ballots. The new data from this poll shows that the incumbents are still holding their leads.

A slight majority of Georgia voters, just over 50%, expect Warnock to win the election for Senate. About the same expect Walker to win. Warnock currently holds a two-point lead over Walker in the latest poll.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock leads with 49% support for re-election against Republican Herschel Walker with 47% support.

Incumbent Republican Governor Brian Kemp leads Democrat Stacey Abrams 52% to 46% in the race for Governor.

However, only about two percent of voters are undecided. This means that Warnock is just shy of the 50% threshold to avoid a runoff with 49.5% support to Walker’s 47.6%. Since the last Emerson/The Hill/WSAV poll in October, each candidate gained a percentage point, but the results still show most voters expect Warnock to win regardless of who they support.

“For voters who say the economy is their top issue, 75% plan to vote for Walker,” said Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, “Nearly 9 in 10 voters (89%) whose top issues are ‘threats to democracy’ or abortion access plan to vote for Warnock.”

The margin is wider in the race for Governor. Governor Kemp leads Abrams with 52% to 46%. Most voters polled expect Kemp to win (about 63%) while only 37% expect Abrams to win.

“Gender is a key factor in the Georgia races for Governor and Senate. In the Senate race, Warnock’s 15-point lead with women is directly challenged by Walker’s 14-point lead in men,” said Kimball, “However, in the Governor’s race, Stacey Abrams’ 7-point advantage with women is overshadowed by Brian Kemp’s 23-point lead with men–more than a three-to-one advantage.”

Other Findings

  • Ninety-two percent of voters have heard, seen, or read a lot (65%) or a little (27%) about Georgia’s Senate debate; 8% have heard, seen, or read nothing at all about it.
  • Many voters (42%) say the debate worsened their opinion of Herschel Walker, 36% say it improved their opinion of Walker, and 22% say it had no impact. Warnock’s reception is more split: 35% say it worsened their opinion of Warnock, 34% say it improved their opinion of the Senator, and 32% say it made no difference.
  • President Biden holds a 52% disapproval rating, while 41% approve of the job he is doing.
  • In a hypothetical election between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, voters support Trump 47% over Biden’s 44% by three points. Eight percent would support someone else.
  • Forty percent of voters say Trump’s endorsement of a candidate makes them less likely to vote for that candidate, while 31% say it makes them more likely to support a candidate. Twenty-nine percent say it makes no difference on their vote.
  • The economy is the most important issue for 46% of Georgia voters, followed by “threats to democracy” at 12%, and abortion access at 11%.

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill/WJBF poll of Georgia voters was conducted October 28-31, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=1,000 with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, an online panel, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.